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Do Political Actors Engage in Strategic Deception on Social Media?

Author

Listed:
  • Bosco de Sousa, Faviana

    (Monash University)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of the Denton method in estimating quarterly GDP using indicators [QGDPi(E)] and explores alternative indicators for GDP components that have big errors. This report uses Timor-Leste quarterly data on GDP expenditure and its components from 2010 to 2019 sourced from GDS (Statistical office of Timor-Leste). The QGDPi(E) is temporally disaggregated through the Denton method, and the results will be evaluated in two ways. Firstly, I compare the Denton results to the Cholette-Dagum results. Secondly, I compare the Denton findings to the published (adjusted) quarterly GDP series. Overall, results show that the Cholette-Dagum approach disaggregates the GDP better than the Denton method, based on the mean absolute error estimation. However, the estimation error of GDP and its components for every quarter are similar for both methods. Therefore, it is concluded that the performance of both procedures is very similar. This result could be used as a guide to disaggregating annual GDP into quarterly series using both approaches, which would be beneficial for Timor-Leste. Finally, this study suggests that GDS continues to use the Denton method in the short term. However, it recommends using a more transparent time series regression-based model to estimate quarterly GDP for a better result in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosco de Sousa, Faviana, 2021. "Do Political Actors Engage in Strategic Deception on Social Media?," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 12, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:12
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/wmesp/manage/12_-_faviana_bosco_de_sousa.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Bisio & Filippo Moauro, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation by dynamic regressions: Recent developments in Italian quarterly national accounts," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 471-494, November.
    2. Mr. Marco Marini, 2016. "Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators: An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods," IMF Working Papers 2016/071, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rashid, Abdul & Jehan, Zanaib, 2013. "Derivation of Quarterly GDP, Investment Spending, and Government Expenditure Figures from Annual Data: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 46937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP ; Proportional Denton Method ; Cholette-Dagum Method JEL Classification: C22 ; C61 ; C82;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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