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Option for Predicting the Czech Republic’S Foreign Trade Time Series as Components in Gross Domestic Product

Author

Listed:
  • Marek Luboš

    (Department of Statistics and Probability, University of Economics, Prague, Czech)

  • Hronová Stanislava

    (Department of Economic Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech)

  • Hindis Richard

    (Department of Statistics and Probability, University of Economics, Prague, Czech)

Abstract

This paper analyses the time series observed for the foreign trade of the Czech Republic (CR) and predictions in such series with the aid of the SARIMA and transfer-function models. Our goal is to find models suitable for describing the time series of the exports and imports of goods and services from/to the CR and to subsequently use these models for predictions in quarterly estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) component resources and utilization. As a result we get suitable models with a time lag, and predictions in the time series of the CR exports and imports several months ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Luboš & Hronová Stanislava & Hindis Richard, 2017. "Option for Predicting the Czech Republic’S Foreign Trade Time Series as Components in Gross Domestic Product," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 481-500, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:481-500:n:4
    DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2016-082
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    References listed on IDEAS

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