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Bond Premium in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Erdem Basci

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Mehmet Fatih Ekinci

    (University of Houston)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the difference between T-Bill returns and common stock returns in Turkey. We observe that there is a bond premium in Turkey unlike the equity premia in developed countries. As an attempt to explain this surprising observation, we incorporate inflation risk and default risk to the Mehra and Presscott (1985) dynamic asset pricing model. Calibration with reasonable parameter values indicate that the inflation risk alone is not sufficient to explain the observed bond premium. However by allowing for the presence of a perceived default probability, we can explain the observed bond premium on Turkish T-Bills over Turkish common stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem Basci & Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, 2004. "Bond Premium in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0409007, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409007
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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    3. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
    4. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    5. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
    6. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The stock return-inflation puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 147-156, April.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    10. Drudi, Francesco & Giordano, Raffaela, 2000. "Default risk and optimal debt management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 861-891, June.
    11. Sylla, Richard & Wallis, John Joseph, 1998. "The anatomy of sovereign debt crises: Lessons from the American state defaults of the 1840s," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 267-293, July.
    12. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
    13. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-1832, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.
    2. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Market Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-100/2, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity Premium Puzzle; Default Risk; Inflation Risk; Asset Pricing; Bond Premium.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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