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Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-Regression

Author

Listed:
  • Vladislav Kargin

    (Cornerstone Research)

  • Alexei Onatski

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

The paper uses functional auto-regression to predict the dynamics of interest rate curve. It estimates the auto-regressive operator by extending methods of the reduced-rank auto-regression to the functional data. Such an estimation technique is better suited for prediction purposes as opposed to the methods based either on principal components or canonical correlations. The consistency of the estimator is proved using methods of operator theory. The estimation method is used to analyze dynamics of Eurodollar futures rates. The results suggest that future movements of interest rates are predictable at 1-year horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladislav Kargin & Alexei Onatski, 2004. "Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-Regression," Macroeconomics 0404008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Oct 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404008
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang Bin, 1990. "Interest Rate Futures Options and Interest Rate Options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 345-370, August.
    2. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1990. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Discrete Time Approximation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 419-440, December.
    3. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
    5. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. "Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
    6. Goldstein, Robert S, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Random Field," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 365-384.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    8. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    9. D. P. Kennedy, 1997. "Characterizing Gaussian Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 107-118, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Bo Li & Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Waël Louhichi & Yao Yao, 2023. "Exploring the Nonlinear Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Evidence from China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 527-559, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    functional data analysis; term structure; principal components; canonical correlations; singular value decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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