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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?


  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)


The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses. and includes commercial forecasting programs as competitors. To judge where to go from here, I step back to look at the M-Competitions as a whole. I discuss the advantages of the M- Competitions in hopes that they will be retained, describe how to gain additional benefit from future competitions, and finally, describe a low-cost approach to competitions.

Suggested Citation

  • JS Armstrong, 2004. "Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?," General Economics and Teaching 0412001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 4

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    2. Scott Armstrong, J., 1988. "Research needs in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 449-465.
    3. Hubbard, Raymond & Vetter, Daniel E., 1996. "An empirical comparison of published replication research in accounting, economics, finance, management, and marketing," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 153-164, February.
    4. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie & Andrew G. Parsons, 2004. "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit," General Economics and Teaching 0412013, EconWPA.
    5. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.

    More about this item


    forecasting; forecasting competitions;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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