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Looking Backwards, Looking Inwards: Priors and Introspection

  • Dov Samet

    (Faculty of Management Tel Aviv University)

The three notions studied here are Bayesian priors, invariant priors and introspection. A prior for an agent is Bayesian, if it agrees with the agent's posterior beliefs when conditioned on them. A prior is invariant, if it is the average, with respect to itself, of the posterior beliefs. Finally, an agent is introspective, if he is certain of his own beliefs. We show that a prior is Bayesian, if and only if it is invariant, and the agent is almost surely introspective. We show how to edogenize priors, and how to express the events that an agent has a Bayesian or invariant prior. Finally, we study properties of the endogenized common prior.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 9610007.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 15 Oct 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:9610007
Note: Type of Document - Postscript ; prepared on Unix; pages: 13
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  1. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
  2. Dov Samet, 1996. "Common Priors and Markov Chains," Game Theory and Information 9610008, EconWPA.
  3. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology I: Knowledge," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 263-300.
  4. Aviad Heifetz & Dov Samet, 1996. "Topology-Free Typology of Beliefs," Game Theory and Information 9609002, EconWPA, revised 17 Sep 1996.
  5. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
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