Hedge ratio estimation and hedging effectiveness: the case of the S&P 500 stock index futures contract

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 stock index futures contract using weekly settlement prices for the period July 3rd, 1992 to June 30th, 2002. Particularly, it focuses on three areas of interest: the determination of the appropriate model for estimating a hedge ratio that minimizes the variance of returns; the hedging effectiveness and the stability of optimal hedge ratios through time; an in-sample forecasting analysis in order to examine the hedging performance of different econometric methods. The hedging performance of this contract is examined considering alternative methods, both constant and time-varying, for computing more effective hedge ratios. The results suggest the optimal hedge ratio that incorporates nonstationarity, long run equilibrium relationship and short run dynamics is reliable and useful for hedgers. Comparisons of the hedging effectiveness and in-sample hedging performance of each model imply that the error correction model (ECM) is superior to the other models employed in terms of risk reduction. Finally, the results for testing the stability of the optimal hedge ratio obtained from the ECM suggest that it remains stable over time.