Are Bank Ratings Coherent with Bank Default Probabilities in Emerging Market Economies ?
In this paper we investigate the coherence between bank ratings and default probability in emerging market economies using scoring and mapping techniques. In order to achieve its disciplining role, the rating should be coherent with the default risk it summarizes and disseminate. This issue is particularly crucial in emerging economies where under-developed financial markets, banking sector accrued opacity, and inadequate regulatory, institutional and legal environment affect banker’s risk taking behavior and bank’s default risk. Scoring results show a correct quantification of agency rating grades and thus their coherence. Mapping results show a tendency of the rating to aggregate bank’s default risk information into intermediate low category grades.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
- Poon, Winnie P. H. & Firth, Michael & Fung, Hung-Gay, 1999. "A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 267-283, August.
- Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008.
"On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry,"
Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
- Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer & Andre Güttler, "undated". "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Working Papers 2, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised Oct 2006.
- André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 2202, CESifo Group Munich.
- Krämer, Walter & Güttler, André, 2003. "Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P," Technical Reports 2003,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Shin, Yoon S. & Moore, William T., 2003. "Explaining credit rating differences between Japanese and U.S. agencies," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 327-344.
- Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 2002. "Can international capital standards strengthen banks in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 5, pages 51-63.
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Can International Capital Standards Strengthen Banks in Emerging Markets?," Working Paper Series WP01-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18.
- repec:bla:joares:v:4:y:1966:i::p:71-111 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-261, April.
- P. Honohan, 2000. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, 02.
- Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
- G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)