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Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P

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  • Krämer, Walter
  • Güttler, André

Abstract

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P as of the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we show that it is unlikely that both agencies are well calibrated, and that the ranking of the agencies depends crucially on the way in which probability predictions are compared.

Suggested Citation

  • Krämer, Walter & Güttler, André, 2003. "Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P," Technical Reports 2003,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200323
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    1. Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer, "undated". "On the ordering of probability forecasts," Working Papers 1, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised May 2003.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Are Bank Ratings Coherent with Bank Default Probabilities in Emerging Market Economies ?," Finance 0409023, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    1. Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008. "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.

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