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Estimating Economic Effects of Political Movements in China

  • Gregory C. Chow

    (Princeton University)

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    To measure the economic effects of political movements in China a simple econo-metric model is constructed. Investment is determined by a central planner maximizing a multiperiod objective function. Political events are modeled by exogenous changes in the shocks to productivity and to investment which affect the time paths of major economic variables. Effects of the events are measured by comparing the time paths generated by the model with and without the changes in the shocks. Without the Great Leap output and consumption per capita would have been 2.0 times as great in 1993, without the Cultural Revolution, 1.2 times as great.

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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0306002.

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    Date of creation: 10 Jun 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0306002
    Note: Published Journal of Comparative Politics Vol 23, (1996) pp 192-208
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