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Estimating Economic Effects of Political Movements in China


  • Gregory C. Chow

    (Princeton University)


To measure the economic effects of political movements in China a simple econo-metric model is constructed. Investment is determined by a central planner maximizing a multiperiod objective function. Political events are modeled by exogenous changes in the shocks to productivity and to investment which affect the time paths of major economic variables. Effects of the events are measured by comparing the time paths generated by the model with and without the changes in the shocks. Without the Great Leap output and consumption per capita would have been 2.0 times as great in 1993, without the Cultural Revolution, 1.2 times as great.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory C. Chow, 2003. "Estimating Economic Effects of Political Movements in China," Econometrics 0306002, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0306002
    Note: Published Journal of Comparative Politics Vol 23, (1996) pp 192-208

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chow, Gregory C., 1992. "Dynamic optimization without dynamic programming," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-9, January.
    2. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    3. Chow, Gregory C., 1993. "Optimal control without solving the Bellman equation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 621-630, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs


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