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Beschäftigungseffekte des österreichischen Osthandels

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  • Wilfried Altzinger

    () (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

Abstract

Die sogenannte 'Ostöffnung' des Jahres 1989 hat die österreichische Wirtschaft durch seine unmittelbare Nachbarschaft mit den entwickelsten Transformationsstaaten sehr unmittelbar beeinflußt. Neben einem starken Anstieg des österreichischen Investitionsengagements in den CEEC-6 (Polen, Ungarn, Tschechien, Slowakei, Slowenien, Kroatien) sowie einer im Vergleich zu anderen OECD-Staaten überdurchschnittlichen Betroffenheit von Migrationströmen hatte die Ostöffnung vor allem äußerst positiven Konsequenzen für die österreichische Handelsentwicklung mit Mittel- und Osteuropa. Die völlige Umorientierung der wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen hin zu den westlichen Industrienationen war mit stark positiven Effekten für die österreichische Handelsbilanz verbunden. Die Handelsbilanz mit den CEEC-6 entwickelte sich von einer nahezu ausgeglichenen Bilanz (1988: +1,6 Mrd.S) in einen Exportüberschuß in der Höhe von 18,1 Mrd. S (1994). Obwohl auch einzelne Branchen durch die steigenden Importe stark betroffen waren, so wirkte sich die Handelsentwicklung mit Mittel- und Osteuropa in den vergangenen fünf Jahren zweifelsohne äußerst positiv auf die wirtschaftliche Gesamtentwicklung Österreichs aus. Diese Entwicklung hat auch entsprechend positiv auf die Beschäftigungsentwicklung gewirkt. Durch den Anstieg der Ostexporte konnten in Österreich in der Periode 1989-94 rund 2,900 zusätzliche direkte Beschäftigung induziert werden. Unter Berücksichtigung von indirekten Beschäftigungseffekten in den Vorleistungssektoren sowie von Sekundäreffekten ergibt sich eine Verbesserung der Gesamtbeschäftigung von rund 31,000 unselbständig Beschäftigten. Dem stehen hypothetische Beschäftigungsverluste durch steigende Importe im Ausmaß von 10,000 bis maximal 16,700 unselbständig Beschäftigten gegenüber. Für das Jahr 1994 errechnet sich insgesamt eine induzierte Exportbeschäftigung von 77,800. Die in diesem Jahr induzierte hypothetischen Verdrängungseffekte durch Importe liegt in einer Größenordnung von maximal 54,500. Unter der Annahme, daß lediglich Industriewarenimporte zu einer direkten Beschäftigungsverdrängung führen, beträgt der induzierte Importbeschäftigungs-effekt lediglich 33,800 Beschäftigte. Somit ergibt sich für 1994 ein positiver Beschäftigungssaldo von 44,000 unselbständig Beschäftigten.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilfried Altzinger, 1996. "Beschäftigungseffekte des österreichischen Osthandels," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp034, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp034
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    1. Aiginger, Karl & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 1995. "East European Trade and the Austrian Labour Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    3. Grafeneder-Weissteiner, Theresa & Prettner, Klaus, 2010. "Agglomeration processes in aging societies," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1620, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth-Short- And Medium-Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, May.
    5. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "East-West Trade and Migration: The Austro-German Case," IZA Discussion Papers 2, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Hagemann, Harald, 2010. "L. Albert Hahn's Economic Theory of Bank Credit," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2948, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner, 2009. "Agglomeration and population ageing in a two region model of exogenous growth," VID Working Papers 0901, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    8. Paul Ramskogler, 2007. "Uncertainty, market power and credit rationing," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp105, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
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    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Paul Ramskogler, 2009. "Post-Keynesian economics How to move forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 227-246.
    11. Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2010. "Financial Uncertainty and Business Investment," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 551-568.
    12. Özlem Onaran, 2007. "International financial markets and fragility in the Eastern Europe: "can it happen" here?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp108, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    13. Currie, Martin & Kubin, Ingrid, 2005. "Fixed price dynamics versus flexible price dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 114, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    14. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2010. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp132, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer & Paul Ramskogler, 2007. "Uncertainty and exploitation in history," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp104, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Riedl, Aleksandra & Rocha-Akis, Silvia, 2007. "Testing the tax competition theory: How elastic are national tax bases in western Europe?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 860, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    17. Badinger, Harald & Kubin, Ingrid, 2007. "Vom kurzfristigen zum mittelfristigen Gleichgewicht in einer offenen Volkswirtschaft unter fixen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 666, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    18. Pasquale Commendatore & Ingrid Kubin & Carmelo Petraglia, 2009. "Footloose Capital and Productive Public Services," Chapters,in: Geography, Structural Change and Economic Development, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Grafeneder-Weissteiner, Theresa, 2010. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 902, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Smet, Koen, 2007. "Stuck in the middle? The structure of trade between South Africa and its major trading partners," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 876, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    21. Fellner, Gerlinde & Sutter, Matthias, 2008. "Causes, consequences, and cures of myopic loss aversion - an experimental investigation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 244, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    22. Grandner, Thomas, 2007. "Product differentiation in a linear city and wage bargaining," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1158, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    23. Figerl, Jürgen & Grandner, Thomas, 2008. "Job quality and wages in duopsony," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1304, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.

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