Monthly Report No. 04/2022

Chart of the Month Eastern Europe at the forefront of the Ukrainian refugee crisis by Isilda Mara Opinion Corner Ukrainian refugees – will they stay in the EU long-term? by Maryna Tverdostup As EU labour markets face an inflow of refugees unseen since World War II, the question of economic and social integration is beyond urgent. With war developments still fluid, one cannot assess whether people aim for a permanent or short-term stay in the EU and thus, whether the policy focus should be on temporary or permanent employment. Yet a number of factors driving the intention to stay can be debated. Pre-war trade and value chain integration of Russia and Ukraine with the EU and EU-CEE by Oliver Reiter Both gross and value added exports from Russia to the EU have declined since 2014. By contrast, Ukraine’s trade integration with the EU has been on the rise. Still, Russian value added is a crucial input in some EU-CEE countries’ industries. The ‘Great Disinflation’ How important was the ‘China Factor’? by Leon Podkaminer Contrary to common belief, China’s integration into the global manufacturing system does not seem to have depressed wage shares in the advanced countries. If anything, it also failed to raise unemployment rates in the advanced countries. The ‘Great Disinflation’ theory advanced by Goodhart and Pradhan (2020) is unconvincing, and so is their conclusion that the approaching great demographic reversal augurs an inflation revival. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe