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The real impact of financial shocks : evidence from the Republic of Korea

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  • Domac, Ilker
  • Ferri, Giovanni

Abstract

The debates surrounding the recent East Asian crisis have focused not only on causes but also on policy actions in the wake of the initial shock. This has raised questions about the relationship between monetary policy and market confidence. Specifically, would rising interest rates bolster or depress market confidence? To answer this question requires assessing whether, and to what extent, monetary and financial shocks are magnified through the economy via the credit channel. The authors focus on the Republic of Korea - a particularly good case for testing credit channel effects - with two objectives: a) To ascertain whether and to what extent interest rate spreads could help predict subsequent fluctuations in real economic activity. b) To test whether small and medium-size enterprises suffer more than other business do from the adverse effects of the credit channel. The author's empirical findings support the hypothesis that spreads that capture credit channel effects do indeed influence economic activity. Specifically, spreads contain significant information for predicting the future course of industrial production. The effect is, as one might have assumed, disproportionately larger for small and medium-size enterprises. Thus policymakers, in Korea and elsewhere, who neglect credit channel effects might be"overkilling the economy"and altogether overlooking the disproportionate effects of monetary and financial shocks on various segments of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "The real impact of financial shocks : evidence from the Republic of Korea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2010, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Panicos O Demetriades, 1999. "Financial Liberalization and Credit-Asset Booms and Busts in East Asia," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2000.
    2. Raditya Sukmana & Salina H. Kassim, 2010. "Roles of the Islamic banks in the monetary transmission process in Malaysia," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 7-19, April.
    3. Haider A. Khan, 2004. "General Conclusions: From Crisis to a Global Political Economy of Freedom," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Global Markets and Financial Crises in Asia, chapter 9, pages 193-211, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Khan, Haider, 2013. "Global Financial Governance: Towards a New Global Financial Architecture for Averting Deep Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 49275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2012. "Banks’ lending behavior and monetary policy: evidence from Sweden," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 131-148, February.
    6. Sung Jin Kang & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2008. "Credit Crunch And Household Welfare, The Case Of The Korean Financial Crisis," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 438-458, December.
    7. Maethinee Supsawaddkul & Don Nakornthap, 2002. "Banking Sector Fundamentals: Learning from the Recent Bank Lending Contraction," Working Papers 2002-02, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    8. Khan, Haider, 2011. "Constructing Global Governance of Global Finance: Towards a Hybrid Global Financial Architecture," MPRA Paper 40249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2012.
    9. Khan, Haider, 2013. "Deep Financial Crises, Reforming the IMF and Building Regional Autonomy:Towards a New Hybrid Global Financial Architecture," MPRA Paper 49514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Costa, Stefano & Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2012. "Access to credit for Italian firms: new evidence from the ISTAT confidence business surveys," MPRA Paper 41389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002. "Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May.
    12. Tsuruta Daisuke, 2010. "Do Financial Shocks Have Negative Effects on Small Businesses? New Evidence from Japan for the Late 1990s," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-48, September.
    13. Khan, Haider, 2013. "Basel III, BIS and Global Financial Governance," MPRA Paper 49513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Knedlik, Tobias & Ströbel, Johannes, 2006. "The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Antonio Forte & Giovanni Pesce, 2009. "The International Financial Crisis: an Expert Survey," SERIES 0024, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Apr 2009.
    16. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Ormrod, Phillip, 2013. "The impact of recent financial shocks on the financing and investment policies of UK private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 59-70.
    17. Mathinee Subhaswasdikul & Don Nakornthab, 2003. "Banking Sector Fundamentals: Learning from the Recent Bank Lending Contraction," Working Papers 2003-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

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