Macro performance under adjustment lending
The authors of this paper use simple statistical methods to measure the effect of adjustment lending (AL) on economic performance. Using eight economic indicators, they rely on traditional"before-after"comparisons of AL recipients and a control group of 62 countries. How have countries under adjustment lending performed? AL countries improved their external position, generating enough of a trade balance surplus to service their external debt. Fiscal indicatorsdeteriorated, however, a sign that macroeconomic imbalances remained. Finally, growth rates fell, reflecting deteriorating terms of trade and the difficulties of reducing absorption to the required degree. On nine economic indicators, AL recipients fared better overall than the non recipients - though the improvement varied between 53 and 33 percent, depending on the classification. Some improvements were mild, some statistically insignificant. Improvements are stronger for a group of 12 AL recipients that received 3 or more adjustment loans.
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