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Struggling with the Rain : Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania

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  • Blanchard,Paul Baptiste
  • Ishizawa Escudero,Oscar Anil
  • Humbert,Thibaut
  • Van Der Borght,Rafael

Abstract

Weather-related shocks and climate variability contribute to hampering progress toward povertyreduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts have a direct impact on weather-dependent livelihood means and thepotential to affect key dimensions of households’ welfare, including food consumption. Yet, the ability to forecastfood insecurity for intervention planning remains limited and current approaches mainly rely on qualitative methods.This paper incorporates microeconomic estimates of the effect of the rainy season quality on food consumption intoa catastrophe risk modeling approach to develop a novel framework for early forecasting of food insecurity atsub-national levels. The model relies on three usual components of catastrophe risk models that are adapted forestimation of the impact of rainy season quality on food insecurity: natural hazards, households’ vulnerability andexposure. The paper applies this framework in the context of rural Mauritania and optimizes the model calibration with amachine learning procedure. The model can produce fairly accurate lean season food insecurity predictions very earlyon in the agricultural season (October-November), that is six to eight months ahead of the lean season. Comparisons ofmodel predictions with survey-based estimates yield a mean absolute error of 1.2 percentage points at the nationallevel and a high degree of correlation at the regional level (0.84).

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchard,Paul Baptiste & Ishizawa Escudero,Oscar Anil & Humbert,Thibaut & Van Der Borght,Rafael, 2023. "Struggling with the Rain : Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10457, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    2. Abera Demeke & Alwin Keil & Manfred Zeller, 2011. "Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 185-206, September.
    3. Kathleen Beegle & Luc Christiaensen, 2019. "Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa [Accélérer la réduction de la pauvreté en Afrique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32354, April.
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