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A Pooled Time-Series Analysis on the Relation Between Fertility and Female Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Henriette Engelhardt

    (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences.)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences.)

Abstract

Various authors find that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labour force participation rate turned from a negative value before the 1980s to a positive value thereafter. Based on pooled time series analysis the literature seems to agree that this change is due to unmeasured country and time heterogeneity with respect to female employment. However, the role of female employment for time and country heterogeneity remains unclear. Using data of 22 OECD countries from 1960-2000 we estimate pooled time series models of fertility and female labour force participation by applying random effects and fixed effects panel models as well as Prais-Winsten regressions with panel-corrected standard errors and autoregressive errors. Proceeding with Prais-Winsten regressions our empirical findings reveal substantial differences across countries and time periods in the effects of female employment on fertility. Initial increases in female employment strongly lowers fertility, but continued increases have a progressively less negative effect. The country heterogeneity in the effect of female employment can also be confirmed for different regions as well as for varying welfare and gender regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2009. "A Pooled Time-Series Analysis on the Relation Between Fertility and Female Employment," European Demographic Research Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  • Handle: RePEc:vid:eudgrp:0501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2002. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-052, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    3. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    4. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Bettio, Francesca & Villa, Paola, 1998. "A Mediterranean Perspective on the Breakdown of the Relationship between Participation and Fertility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 137-171, March.
    7. Tomas Kögel, 2004. "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February.
    8. Henriette Engelhardt & Tomas Kögel & Alexia Prskawetz, 2001. "Fertility and women´s employment reconsidered: A macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Kögel, 2006. "An explanation of the positive correlation between fertility and female employment across Western European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2006_11, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    2. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. Suzuki, Toru, 2006. "Lowest-Low Fertility and Governmental Actions in Japan," Discussion Paper 294, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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