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Is the Bitcoin Rush Over?

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Cristian Frunza

    (LabEx ReFi; Schwarzthal Kapital, France)

  • Dominique Guégan

    (University Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne; Ca' Foscari University of Venice; IPAG Business School; LabEx ReFi)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to explore the econometric features of Bitcoin-USD rates. Various non-Gaussian models are fitted to daily returns in order to underline the unique characteristics of Bitcoin when compared to other more traditional currencies. Market efficiency hypothesis is tested further, and the main reasons for breaches in efficiency are discussed. The main goal of the paper is to assess the presence of bubble effects in this market with customized tests able to detect the timing of various bubbles. The results show that the Bitcoin prices had two episodes of rapid inflation in 2014 and 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Cristian Frunza & Dominique Guégan, 2018. "Is the Bitcoin Rush Over?," Working Papers 2018:10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2018:10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Central Bank Digital Cash and Cryptocurrencies: Insights from a New Baumol–Friedman Demand for Money," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 540-550, December.
    2. Julien Chevallier & Dominique Guégan & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-44, May.
    3. Julián A. Parra & Carlos Arango & Joaquín Bernal & José E. Gómez & Javier Gómez & Carlos León & Clara Machado & Daniel Osorio & Daniel Rojas & Nicolás Suárez & Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Criptoactivos: análisis y revisión de literatura," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 92, pages 1-37, November.
    4. Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2020. "Distant or close cousins: Connectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro & Giovanno Rabitti, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies, central bank digital cash, traditional money: does privacy matter?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1895, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; crypto-currencies; bubbles; market efficiency; timeseries modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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