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Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Nardon

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Paolo Pianca

    (pianca@unive.it)

Abstract

Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization of expected utility. Decision makers have biased probability estimates; they tend to underweight high probabilities and overweight low probabilities. Risk attitude, loss aversion and subjective probabilities are described by two functions: a value function and a weighting function, respectively. In our analysis, we use alternative probability weighting functions. We consider the pricing problem both from the writer's and holder's perspective, obtaining an interval for the prices of call and put options.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Nardon & Paolo Pianca, 2012. "Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing," Working Papers 2012:34, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2012:34
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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