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Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing

  • Martina Nardon

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

  • Paolo Pianca

    (pianca@unive.it)

Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization of expected utility. Decision makers have biased probability estimates; they tend to underweight high probabilities and overweight low probabilities. Risk attitude, loss aversion and subjective probabilities are described by two functions: a value function and a weighting function, respectively. In our analysis, we use alternative probability weighting functions. We consider the pricing problem both from the writer's and holder's perspective, obtaining an interval for the prices of call and put options.

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File URL: http://www.unive.it/media/allegato/DIP/Economia/Working_papers/Working_papers_2012/WP_DSE_nardon_pianca_34_12.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2012:34.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2012:34
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  1. Enrico Diecidue & Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2006. "Parametric Weighting Functions," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0622, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  2. Richard Thaler, 1985. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 199-214.
  3. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  4. Klaus Abbink & Bettina Rockenbach, 2005. "Option Pricing by Students and Professional Traders: A Behavioural Investigation," Discussion Papers 2005-12, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  5. Christian Wolff & Thorsten Lehnert & Cokki Versluis, 2009. "A Cumulative Prospect Theory Approach to Option Pricing," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-03, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  7. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  8. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  9. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
  10. Hersh Shefrin & Meir Statman, 1993. "Behavioral Aspects of the Design and Marketing of Financial Products," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), Summer.
  11. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
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