IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/413.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Using Equities to Produce Pension Payouts

Author

Abstract

Is it possible to achieve almost riskless, nonfluctuating investment payoffs in the long run, at a fraction of the traditional funding requirement, using equity investments? The persistence of low interest rates is spurring research on this question because of the need to increase yields, while limiting the variability of investment results. Payouts of savings account units aim to achieve an almost riskless outcome over a long horizon. We show that they can be managed as contingent claims and, when denominated in units of a stock index, less expensively than under classical risk-neutral assumptions. To assess the robustness of the proposed hedge portfolios, we introduce a simple overfunded scheme and show its reliability using bootstrapping. The results show that by applying an overfunding of 6%, the probability of not achieving the target is less than 1%. At the heart of this result are the mean-reversion and the leverage effect of the minimal market model, together with the supermartingale property of the benchmarked savings account.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Barone Adesi & Eckhard Platen & Carlo Sala, 2020. "On Using Equities to Produce Pension Payouts," Research Paper Series 413, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/article/downloads/rp413.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    2. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Spierdijk, Laura & Bikker, Jacob A. & van den Hoek, Pieter, 2012. "Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 228-249.
    4. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Less-Expensive Valuation of Long Term Annuities Linked to Mortality, Cash and Equity," Papers 1711.02808, arXiv.org.
    5. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    6. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2014. "Hedging long-dated interest rate derivatives for Australian pension funds and life insurers," Published Paper Series 2014-7, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Alessandro Gnoatto & Martino Grasselli & Eckhard Platen, 2016. "A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned: Less Expensive Zero Coupon Bonds," Papers 1608.04683, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    8. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    9. Platen, Eckhard, 2000. "A minimal financial market model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,91, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    2. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    3. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Chun, Sungju & Vodounou, Cosme, 2013. "Sampling interval and estimated betas: Implications for the presence of transitory components in stock prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-62.
    6. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2014. "Analogy Making and the Structure of Implied Volatility Skew," MPRA Paper 60921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    8. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Analogy Making, Option Prices, and Implied Volatility," MPRA Paper 48862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lüders, Erik, 2002. "Asset Prices and Alternative Characterizations of the Pricing Kernel," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-10, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Buckley, Winston S. & Long, Hongwei, 2015. "A discontinuous mispricing model under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 944-955.
    12. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.
    13. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    14. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    15. Shively, Philip A., 2007. "Asymmetric temporary and permanent stock-price innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 120-130, January.
    16. Jay Squalli, 2006. "A non-parametric assessment of weak-form efficiency in the UAE financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1365-1373.
    17. Eric Hillebrand, 2003. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Departmental Working Papers 2003-10, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    18. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Kim, Jintae, 2018. "London calling: Nonlinear mean reversion across national stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 265-277.
    19. Spierdijk, Laura & Bikker, Jacob A. & van den Hoek, Pieter, 2012. "Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 228-249.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    21. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedging; locally riskless payout; dynamic investment policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.