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Sure Profits via Flash Strategies and the Impossibility of Predictable Jumps

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Abstract

In an arbitrage-free financial market, asset prices should not exhibit jumps of a predictable magnitude at predictable times. We provide a rigorous formulation of this result in a fully general setting, only allowing for buy-and-hold positions and without imposing any semimartingale restriction. We show that asset prices do not exhibit predictable jumps if and only if there is no possibility of obtaining sure profits via high-frequency limits of buy-and-hold trading strategies. Our results imply that, under minimal assumptions, price changes occurring at scheduled dates should only be due to unanticipated information releases.

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  • Claudio Fontana & Markus Pelger & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Sure Profits via Flash Strategies and the Impossibility of Predictable Jumps," Research Paper Series 385, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:385
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/QFR-rp385.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontana, Claudio & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2018. "General dynamic term structures under default risk," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(10), pages 3353-3386.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Absence of arbitrage; predictable time; semimartingale; high-frequency trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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