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High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility

  • Ryohei Hisano

    (ETH Zurich, Department of Management,Technology and Economics; The Canon Institute of Global Studies)

  • Didier Sornette

    (ETH Zurich, Department of Management,Technology and Economics; Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Takayuki Mizuno

    (Department of Computer Science,Graduate school of SIE, University of Tsukuba; The Canon Institute of Global Studies;The University of Tokyo,Graduate School of Economics)

  • Takaaki Ohnishi

    (The Canon Institute of Global Studies; The University of Tokyo,Graduate School of Economics)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (The Canon Institute of Global Studies; The University of Tokyo,Graduate School of Economics)

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    Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this paper we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 205 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their “thematic” features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be “abnormally large,” can be explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no “excess trading,” if the news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.

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    Paper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 002.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:002
    Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan
    Phone: +81-3-3812-2111
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    1. Umit G. Gurun & Alexander W. Butler, 2012. "Don't Believe the Hype: Local Media Slant, Local Advertising, and Firm Value," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 561-598, 04.
    2. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    3. Oral Erdogan & Ari Yezegel, 2009. "The news of no news in stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 897-909.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
      [This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]
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    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    6. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769,
    7. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    9. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, 04.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Research Working Paper 86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, 06.
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