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Testing for Structural Breaks in the Korean Economy 1980-2005: An Application of the Innovational Outlier and Additive Outlier Models

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Abstract

This paper employs quarterly time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for various macroeconomic variables in Korean economy. The Innovational Outlier (IO) as well as Additive Outlier models (Perron, 1997) are then used to test for non-stationarity of the Korean macroeconomic data. After accounting for the single most significant structural break, the results from the (AO) model clearly indicate that the null of at least one unit root cannot be rejected for all of the series under investigation. This finding is consistent with our finding based on the conventional unit root test. However, by applying the IO procedure in the presence of a structural break we find the interesting result that two of the variables under investigation become stationary. The timing of structural breaks for key macroeconomic data under the IO and AO approaches appear to be quite different. Using the IO approach seven of the ten macroeconomic variables focused upon have important structural breaks corresponding with the timing of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. On the other hand, using the AO approach, only one of the ten variables appears to have a structural break related to the Asian financial crisis, while the remaining nine variables have quite diverse structural breaks that depend on key policy changes or other factors contributing to economic turbulence.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvie, Charles & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2006. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Korean Economy 1980-2005: An Application of the Innovational Outlier and Additive Outlier Models," Economics Working Papers wp06-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-09
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012222.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    structural break; unit root test; and Korean economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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