IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uct/uconnp/2025-02.html

‘Nobody Wants to Work Anymore’: Lifetime Wage Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Remy Levin

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Daniela Vidart

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Male labor force participation (MLFP) has declined sharply over the past 50 years in the United States. We show that a key driver of this decline is changes in mens’ beliefs about the returns to work, shaped by their lifetime experiences of aggregate male wages. Using PSID data tracking individual labor histories linked to state-level real male wage time series, we find that prime-age MLFP increases with the average male wage in a man’s state of birth over his lifetime, even after controlling for current labor market conditions and a host of fixed effects and covariates. A one standard deviation increase in the average experienced aggregate lifetime hourly wage—corresponding to $0.33 and comparable to the difference in 2000 between being born in 1970 in Louisiana and Texas—raises the probability of labor force participation by 10 percentage points. These effects persist for men who migrate and are stronger when restricting to samerace wages. Our findings suggest that lifetime wage experiences shape long-term beliefs about work, generating lasting spillovers from labor demand to labor supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Remy Levin & Daniela Vidart, 2025. "‘Nobody Wants to Work Anymore’: Lifetime Wage Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States," Working papers 2025-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2025-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://media.economics.uconn.edu/working/2025-02.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malmendier, Ulrike & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2021. "The making of hawks and doves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 19-42.
    2. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    3. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Steiny Wellsjo, Alex, 2020. "Rent or Buy? The Role of Lifetime Experiences on Homeownership within and across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 14935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2016. "The Evolution of Gender Gaps in Industrialized Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 405-434, October.
    5. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2013. "Does Disability Insurance Receipt Discourage Work? Using Examiner Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of SSDI Receipt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1797-1829, August.
    6. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    7. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paola Giuliano & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2025. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 542-597, June.
    2. Happel, Jonas & Karabulut, Yigitcan & Schäfer, Larissa & Tüzel, Şelale, 2024. "Shattered housing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 201, pages 205-226.
    5. Strong, Christine & Gakpa, Lewis-Landry, 2025. "Early-Life currency crises and exchange rate pass-through: Understanding the impact of central Bankers’ formative years in Africa," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Magud, Nicolás E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2025. "Inflated concerns: Exposure to past inflationary episodes and preferences for price stability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Galindo Gil, Hamilton & Mendoza Perez, Liu, 2025. "Dollarization hysteresis, inflation jumps, and fear of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Groero, Jaroslav, 2024. "The role of gene–environment interaction in the formation of risk attitudes," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Chen, Jie & Lasfer, Meziane & Song, Wei & Zhou, Si, 2021. "Recession managers and mutual fund performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Emmanuelle Deglaire & Peter Daly & Fabrice Lec, 2021. "Exposure to tax dilemmas deteriorate individuals' self-declared tax morale," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 363-397, December.
    12. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Neumayer, Andreas & Streb, Jochen, 2023. "Heterogeneous inflation and deflation experiences and savings decisions during German industrialization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2025. "Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 657-685, March.
    16. Lejarraga, Tomás & Woike, Jan K. & Hertwig, Ralph, 2024. "What makes depression babies different: Expectations or preferences?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    17. Gunratan Lonare & Gene Lai & Sangyong Han & Chia‐Ling Ho, 2024. "CEO past distress experience and risk‐taking: Evidence from US property–liability insurance firms," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 5-39, April.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/vbu6kd1s68o6r34k5bcm3iopv is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Eleonora Granziera & Vegard H. Larsen & Greta Meggiorini & Leonardo Melosi, 2025. "Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11992, CESifo.
    20. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    21. Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Werner Hölzl, 2024. "Individual credit market experience and beliefs about bank lending policy: evidence from a firm survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 126(2), pages 387-414, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2025-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark McConnel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuctus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.