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COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Going Further with Less?

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  • Tensay Meles
  • L. (Lisa B.) Ryan
  • Joe Wheatley

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis comes at a complex moment for European climate policy as it pivots from a 40% 2030 emissions reduction target to a European Green Deal that is in better alignment with long-term Paris Agreement goals. Here, the implications of the dramatic fall in economic output associated with the crisis are examined using a representative range of growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, existing policy measures could achieve the 40% target sooner than 2030. However, we find that even in the most severe economic scenario examined, this falls well short of the 50-55% emissions reduction target under the Green Deal. Maintaining the existing 40% target in 2030 with reduced policy measures on the other hand would move European climate policy away from the required path. This analysis indicates the feasibility of increased climate ambition in the wake of the pandemic and supports the Green Deal 50-55% targets in 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Tensay Meles & L. (Lisa B.) Ryan & Joe Wheatley, 2020. "COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Going Further with Less?," Working Papers 202012, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202012
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11418
    File Function: First version, 2020
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    1. Glen P. Peters & Gregg Marland & Corinne Le Quéré & Thomas Boden & Josep G. Canadell & Michael R. Raupach, 2012. "Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 2-4, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gildas Appéré & Muriel Travers, 2021. "Impacts of environmental issues on an optimal social distancing policy towards the Covid-19 pandemic [Impacts des enjeux environnementaux sur une politique de distanciation sociale optimale face à la pandémie de Covid-19]," Working Papers hal-03250686, HAL.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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