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An Econometric Analysis of Burglary in Ireland

  • Kevin Denny

    (University College Dublin)

  • Colm Harmon

    (University College Dublin)

  • Reamonn Lydon

    (University College Dublin)

This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors - in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system - the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2004/WP04.16.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200416.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 24 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200416
Contact details of provider: Postal: UCD, Belfield, Dublin 4
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Web page: http://www.ucd.ie/economics

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  1. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-58, June.
  2. Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime: Deterrence, Incapacitation, or Measurement Error?," NBER Working Papers 5268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-90, June.
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