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An Econometric Analysis of Burglary in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Denny

    (University College Dublin)

  • Colm Harmon

    (University College Dublin)

  • Reamonn Lydon

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors - in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system - the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Denny & Colm Harmon & Reamonn Lydon, 2004. "An Econometric Analysis of Burglary in Ireland," Working Papers 200416, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Google Hot Trends: Crime Mapping
      by Martin Ryan in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2009-05-01 16:15:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Brosnan, Stephen, 2016. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime in Ireland from 2003-2012," MPRA Paper 74118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brosnan, Stephen, 2017. "The Impact of Sports Participation on Crime in England between 2012 and 2015," MPRA Paper 78596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stephen Brosnan, 2018. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime in Ireland from 2003-2012," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 127-143.
    4. Eoin O’Sullivan & Ian O’Donnell, 2003. "Imprisonment and the Crime Rate in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 33-64.
    5. Jonathan Torres‐Tellez & Alberto Montero Soler, 2023. "After the economic crisis of 2008: Economic conditions and crime in the last decade for the case of Spain," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 82(3), pages 223-239, May.

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