IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucm/doicae/0301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy

Author

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specified. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer. We find that this approach gives predictions that are consistent with the time series properties of Venezuela when i) the income efect of consumption more than compensates the substitution effect that generates the oil transfer and, ii) there is imperfect capital mobility. In particular, our model specification captures the observed patterns of the main aggregates after the oil resource boom of 1974.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco J. Sáez & Luis A. Puch, 2003. "Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0301, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/7694/1/0301.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    9. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    10. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José U. Mora Mora, 2013. "Fluctuaciones económicas bajo régimen de cambio fijo en una economía pequena con dos sectores," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, June.
    2. José Ustorgio Mora Mora, 2013. "Fluctuaciones económicas en una economía pequena con dos sectores productivos bajo régimen de cambio flotante," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Real business cycles," Staff Report 370, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    4. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co-movement," NBER Working Papers 15561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    7. Ben Malin, 2006. "Lower-Frequency Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Living Standards and Leisure," 2006 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    9. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    10. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Villa Stefania, 2012. "Capital Utilization and the Amplification Mechanism," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, September.
    12. Khan, Aubhik & Thomas, Julia K., 2003. "Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: do nonlinearities matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 331-360, March.
    13. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    14. Federico Etro & Andrea Colciago, 2010. "Endogenous Market Structures and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1201-1233, December.
    15. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Modeling Inventories Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 10652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    18. Akande, Emmanuel, 2013. "Investment Shocks: Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 52159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gong, Liutang & Wang, Chan & Zhao, Fuyang & Zou, Heng-fu, 2017. "Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 149-161.
    20. Gomme, Paul & Greenwood, Jeremy, 1995. "On the cyclical allocation of risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 91-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade shocks; Aggregate fuctuations; Emerging economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Águeda González Abad (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feucmes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.