ASEAN in a Regional Perspective
Trade among the ASEAN economies is higher than one would expect, based on their income levels and other important determinants of bilateral trade. The same is true of trade within East Asia more broadly (or trade within an ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand grouping). To the extent that this regional concentration of trade is attributed to formal or informal regional trading arrangements, they appear to be trade-creating, not trade-diverting. The rate of increase of trade within ASEAN or within East Asia, however, can be entirely explained by the rapid growth of the countries. There is nothing left over to attribute to an intensifying bloc. Perhaps the regional concentration, which shows up from the beginning of the sample period, is not due to formal measures, such as the decision to form an ASEAN FrA, but rather to a shared trading culture. (Trade among Southeast Asian countries will in the future naturally continue to grow more rapidly than incomes.) The openness of the Indochinese countries, suitably adjusted, was very low in 1992, but had almost doubled by 1994. If these formerly autarkic countries restore normal trade relations with the rest of the world over the coming decade, the gravity model predicts that their trade will expand another seven-fold, in addition to the expansion attributable to growth. The stock of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a significant determinant of trade. We find that bilateral FDI can be modelled analogously to bilateral trade. In both cases, there is no evidence that Japan has accelerated its economic interactions with Southeast Asia, beyond what can be attributed to simple economic growth rates. We accept others' arguments that the ASEAN countries' trade relations with the industrialized countries are more important than their relations with each other. But we do not accept the argument that the latter are unimportant. If the ASEAN countries make serious progress along the path that they have set for themselves under the AFTA, the
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA|
Web page: http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/groups/iber/wps/ciderwp.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: IBER, F502 Haas Building, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley CA 94720-1922|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, January.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.), 1997. "The Regionalization of the World Economy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226259956.
- Tom Jackson, 1991. "A game model of ASEAN trade liberalization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 237-254, October.
- Colin Kirkpatrick, 1994. "Regionalisation, Regionalism and East Asian Economic Cooperation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 191-202, 03.
- Hiro Lee & David Roland-Holst, 1993. "International Trade and the Transfer of Environmental Costs and Benefits," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 91, OECD Publishing.
- Kojima, Kiyoshi, 1985. "Japanese and American Direct Investment in Asia : A Comparative Analysis," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
- Arvind Panagariya, 1994. "East Asia and the New Regionalism in World Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(6), pages 817-839, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c96-074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.