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Bitcoin Technical Trading with Articial Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Masafumi Nakano

    (Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Soichiro Takahashi

    (Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper explores Bitcoin intraday technical trading based on artificial neural networks for the return prediction. In particular, our deep learning method successfully discovers trading signals through a seven layered neural network structure for given input data of technical indicators, which are calculated by the past time-series data over every 15 minutes. Under feasible settings of execution costs, the numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy. Especially, our model performs well for a challenging period from December 2017 to January 2018, during which Bitcoin suffers from substantial minus returns. Furthermore, various sensitivity analysis is implemented for the change of the number of layers, activation functions, input data and output classification to confirm the robustness of our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2018. "Bitcoin Technical Trading with Articial Neural Network," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1090, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2018cf1090
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    2. KiHoon Hong, 2017. "Bitcoin as an alternative investment vehicle," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 265-275, December.
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    5. KiHoon Hong, 0. "Bitcoin as an alternative investment vehicle," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-11.
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    11. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling," CARF F-Series cf406, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
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    13. Begušić, Stjepan & Kostanjčar, Zvonko & Eugene Stanley, H. & Podobnik, Boris, 2018. "Scaling properties of extreme price fluctuations in Bitcoin markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 400-406.
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