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Future Waste Generation - Forecasts Based on a Macroeconomic Model




Generation of solid waste is closely associated with the use of tangible factor inputs and production levels in the economy. In this paper, we present projections of waste generated in the Norwegian manufacturing industry based on the development in these factors as simulated by a computable general equilibrium model. Over the simulation period, material input becomes relatively cheaper than labour and energy, thereby making it profitable to substitute materials for other factor inputs. This substitution effect is a general equilibrium effect mainly due to technological change. It dominates the direct material saving impact of technological progress in most production sectors. Thus, generated solid waste rises over the simulation period, both in terms of unit produced and per capita. The analysis predicts an increase in generated waste over the period from 1993 to 2010 in the range of 45 - 110 per cent, depending on the type of waste.

Suggested Citation

  • Annegrete Bruvoll & Karin Ibenholt, 1996. "Future Waste Generation - Forecasts Based on a Macroeconomic Model," Discussion Papers 175, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:175

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. "The oil shocks and macroeconomic adjustment in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 243-248.
    2. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
    3. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    4. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    5. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. "The oil shocks and macroeconomic adjustment in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 243-248.
    6. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-279, June.
    7. Tatom, John A., 1988. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price changes symmetric?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 325-368, January.
    8. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karin Ibenholt, 2003. "Material Accounting in a Macroeconomic Framework: Forecast of Waste Generated in Manufacturing Industries in Norway," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(2), pages 227-248, October.
    2. Annegrete Bruvoll & Karin Ibenholt, 1998. "Green Throughput Taxation: Environmental and Economic Consequences," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(4), pages 387-401, December.
    3. Alfsen, Knut H. & Greaker, Mads, 2007. "From natural resources and environmental accounting to construction of indicators for sustainable development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 600-610, March.
    4. Sjöström, Magnus & Östblom, Göran, 2009. "Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model," Working Papers 109, National Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Di Vita, Giuseppe, 1997. "Macroeconomic effects of the recycling of waste derived from imported non-renewable raw materials," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 179-186, December.
    6. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item


    Solid waste; waste modelling; Norway.;

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • Q29 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other


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