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Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model


  • Sjöström, Magnus

    () (National Institute of Economic Research)

  • Östblom, Göran

    () (National Institute of Economic Research)


Over the last decades, waste quantities have grown steadily in close relation to economic growth. To tackle the problem of continuing waste growth within the EU, waste prevention was listed among four top priorities in the EU Sixth environment Action Programme. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is here used for projecting future quantities of hazardous and non-hazardous waste in Sweden to 2030. The effects of driving forces behind waste generation are illustrated by comparing the results of waste projections for a Baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios. The scenarios differ mainly in GDP growth rates and in the assumptions about future waste intensities of the economic activities of firms and households. We use a high-resolution data set on waste flows of 18 various types of non-hazardous waste and 16 various types of hazardous waste attributed to six waste-generating sources for the base year 2006. Waste generated in the scenarios, thus, relate to firms’ material input, output, employees, capital scrapping and fuel combustion as well as households’ consumption. The impact of economic growth in increasing the generation of nonhazardous and hazardous waste is apparent when comparing the growth of waste from 2006 to 2030 in the five scenarios. On the contrary, technological change resulting in less waste intensive production processes and changed behaviour among households, making their activities less waste intensive, have a strong reducing effect, especially on generation of non-hazardous waste relating to firms’ material input.

Suggested Citation

  • Sjöström, Magnus & Östblom, Göran, 2009. "Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model," Working Papers 109, National Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0109

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Göran Östblom & Eva Samakovlis, 2007. "Linking health and productivity impacts to climate policy costs: a general equilibrium analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 379-391, September.
    2. Annegrete Bruvoll & Karin Ibenholt, 1996. "Future Waste Generation - Forecasts Based on a Macroeconomic Model," Discussion Papers 175, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Massimiliano Mazzanti, 2007. "Is waste generation de-linking from economic growth? Empirical evidence for Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 287-291.
    4. Nick Johnstone & Julien Labonne, 2004. "Generation of Household Solid Waste in OECD Countries: An Empirical Analysis Using Macroeconomic Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
    5. Östblom, Göran & Berg, Charlotte, 2006. "The EMEC model: Version 2.0," Working Papers 96, National Institute of Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Persson, Urban & Münster, Marie, 2016. "Current and future prospects for heat recovery from waste in European district heating systems: A literature and data review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 116-128.

    More about this item


    general equilibrium model; waste generation; decoupling; waste intensities waste scenarios.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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