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Croissance économique et bien être matériel

Author

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  • Gerard Cornilleau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

La mesure du bien-être matériel d’une société et de son évolution est une question qui reste ouverte. On propose ici un indicateur nouveau fondé sur la prise en compte du caractère « relatif » du niveau de bien-être d’une génération et de l’impact « absolu » de la croissance du revenu en cours de vie. L’hypothèse de base retenue considère que chaque individu est doté, à la naissance, d’un niveau de bien-être initial proportionnel au revenu relatif dont dispose sa famille. Par la suite le bien-être de chaque individu évolue comme le revenu réel dont il dispose. À long terme, cet indicateur dépend de la répartition du revenu (une réduction des inégalités augmente le bien-être social) et du taux de croissance de l’économie, la hausse du revenu par habitant conduisant à une augmentation durable du bien-être, puisque les générations en cours de vie bénéficient d’un bien-être plus élevé. Il évolue également positivement en fonction de la durée de la vie et du vieillissement car la part des générations ayant bénéficié d’une hausse du bien-être au cours de la vie augmente. Le calcul de cet indicateur pour quatre pays, France, Italie, États-Unis et Grande-Bretagne de 1950 à 2000, montre que le bien-être a très fortement augmenté en France et en Italie dans les années cinquante à soixante-dix avant de stagner depuis les années quatre-vingt. Aux États-Unis et en Grande Bretagne l’évolution du bien-être aurait été nettement plus régulière. Si le taux de croissance du revenu par tête se maintenait au niveau actuel en France et en Italie, le niveau de bien-être y diminuerait de 20 à 40 % en 2050 alors qu’il se stabiliserait au niveau actuel en Grande-Bretagne et aux États-Unis. Dans les quatre pays une croissance économique de 2 % par an permettrait juste de stabiliser le niveau de bien-être à long terme. Ces résultats montrent que pour garantir le maintien d’un niveau élevé de bien-être social la politique économique doit viser dans le long terme à la fois un taux de croissance économique élevé et la réduction des inégalités.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Cornilleau, 2005. "Croissance économique et bien être matériel," Sciences Po publications N°2005-15, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3966
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Alain Monfort, 2002. "Croissance, transferts et inégalités entre générations," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 154(3), pages 79-94.
    2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July.
    3. Easterlin, Richard A, 2001. "Income and Happiness: Towards an Unified Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 465-484, July.
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