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Sustentabilidade da dívida publica brasileira: Uma análise sob diversos conceitos de superávit primário e endividamento

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  • Raí da Silva Chicoli
  • Siegfried Bender

Abstract

Este artigo analisa a sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira utilizando a metodologia proposta por Bohn (1998, 2008), levando em consideração a estrutura de receitas e despesas do governo federal e os empréstimos do governo federal para bancos públicos, principalmente BNDES. Para isso, utilizam-se dois conceitos de superávit primário (oficial e permanente) e de endividamento (dívidas líquida, bruta e bruta excluídas reservas internacionais), para o período de 2003 a 2014. Em todos os casos analisados, a hipótese de sustentabilidade não foi satisfeita, logo há a necessidade de se alterar a política fiscal do país. Foram realizados testes de quebra estrutural seguindo a metodologia de Bai e Perron (1998), nos quais se verificou que a alteração no padrão da política fiscal pós-crise de 2008 foi um dos principais responsáveis pelo resultado de não sustentabilidade.

Suggested Citation

  • Raí da Silva Chicoli & Siegfried Bender, 2015. "Sustentabilidade da dívida publica brasileira: Uma análise sob diversos conceitos de superávit primário e endividamento," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_37, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2015wpecon37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt sustainability; fiscal policy; primary surplus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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