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Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Susan Stratton Sayre

    () (Department of Economics, Smith College)

  • Rachel Goodhue
  • Leo Simon

Abstract

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Stratton Sayre & Rachel Goodhue & Leo Simon, "undated". "Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy," Working Papers 2012-01, Smith College, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:smt:wpaper:2012-01
    as

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    File URL: http://www.smith.edu/econ/workingpaper/pdfs/Sayre1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler., 2009. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    2. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(3), pages 493-506.
    4. Jay Lund & Ellen Hanak & William Fleenor & William Bennett & Richard Howitt & Jeffrey Mount & Peter Moyle, 2008. "Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta," PPIC Research Reports, Public Policy Institute of California, number deltab, dez..
    5. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
    7. Richard T. Woodward & W. Douglass Shaw, 2008. "Allocating Resources in an Uncertain World: Water Management and Endangered Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 593-605.
    8. Ellen Hanak, 2007. "Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta," PPIC Research Reports, Public Policy Institute of California, number deltaa, dez..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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