Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy
Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jay Lund & Ellen Hanak & William Fleenor & William Bennett & Richard Howitt & Jeffrey Mount & Peter Moyle, 2008. "Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta," PPIC Research Reports, Public Policy Institute of California, number deltab, Spring.
- Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew W. Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2008.
"Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 173-88, Summer.
- Ellen Hanak, 2007. "Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta," PPIC Research Reports, Public Policy Institute of California, number deltaa, Spring.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1980.
"A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 94(3), pages 493-506.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," Munich Reprints in Economics 19914, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
- Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
- Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
- Richard T. Woodward & W. Douglass Shaw, 2008. "Allocating Resources in an Uncertain World: Water Management and Endangered Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 593-605.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:smt:wpaper:2012-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Savoca)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.