IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sec/cnrepo/0055.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Sources of Economic Growth in Ukraine after 1998 Currency Crisis and the Country's Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Marek Dabrowski
  • Malgorzata Jakubiak

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the sources of economic growth in Ukraine, which has been observed from the second half of 1999. In addition, we intend to answer the question what is the sustainability of this growth, i.e. putting in other words, what are the chances and conditions for maintaining growth in the future. Neither question is easy to answer. Analyzing sources of growth and growth sustainability in any transition country is a serious intellectual challenge, for a number of reasons. First, we do not have any comprehensive growth theory in transition economies so far. What is available, it is a couple of more or less empirically verified hypotheses concerning the influence of various macro and microeconomic factors on growth performance. Second, statistical data series in transition economies are still rather short and unstable as a result of various methodological changes in statistics and structural and institutional changes in the economy, which makes serious econometric analysis risky. This argument is particularly relevant to the Ukrainian economy, which entered structural and institutional changes with significant delay compared to other countries, and where the quality of statistics is below regional average. Third, most of transition economies, including the Ukrainian one, are open in terms of trade and financial flows. They have thus become sensitive to some external factors such as growth fluctuations in the world economy as a whole, varying conditions of Ukraine’s major trade partners, changing attitudes of financial investors to emerging markets, etc. We have seen that even countries considered as having strong and sustainable growth potential can seriously suffer from adverse external shocks as it happened in 1998-1999 with the Baltic countries and Poland after the Russian and Ukrainian financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Jakubiak, 2003. "The Sources of Economic Growth in Ukraine after 1998 Currency Crisis and the Country's Prospects," CASE Network Reports 0055, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/91265_RC%2055%20v4%20ok.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    2. World Bank, 2002. "Transition, The First Ten Years : Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14042.
    3. Simon Johnson & John McMillan & Christopher Woodruff, 2002. "Property Rights and Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1335-1356.
    4. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?," CESifo Working Paper Series 530, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 1016-1029.
    2. Vladimir Dubrovskiy & Oleg Ustenko, 2005. "Business Climate in CIS Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0307, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Aleksandra Polak). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/caseepl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.