Bubbles, Can We Spot Them? Crashes, Can We Predict Them?
Johansen and Sornette proposes that the crash has fundamentally an endogenous origin and exogenous shocks only serve as triggering factors. This endogenous force is shown in price as power law log-periodicity (PLLP) signature prior to a crash. We estimate the highly nonlinear model developed by them using a hybrid approach which combines scatter search, genetic adaptor and tabu search. The model is applied to two property data sets (Hong Kong Office Price Index and Seoul Hosing Price Index) and one property related stock price (Korea General Construction Stock Price Index). The fitting of the original model to these data sets was unsuccessful, due to the lack of the power law. We hence fit the data using a modified model, and the results are encouraging when crash-date prediction is the aim
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
- Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
- Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
- A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash," Papers cond-mat/0004263, arXiv.org, revised May 2000.
- Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.