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Surrogate Data Analysis and Stochastic Chaotic Modelling: Application to Stock Exchange Returns Series

Author

Listed:
  • Constantinos VORLOW
  • Antonios ANTONIOU
  • Catherine KYRTSOU

Abstract

We investigate for evidence of complex-deterministic dynamics in financial returns time series. By combining the Surrogate Data Analysis inferential framework with the MG-GARCH (Kyrtsou and Terraza, 2003) modelling approach, we examine whether the sequences are characterized by aperiodic and nonlinear deterministic cycles or pure randomness. Our results support the hypothesis of complex nonlinear and non-stochastic dynamics in the data generating processes. According to our approach, markets can be assumed to be highly complex, high-dimensional, open and dissipative dynamical systems that need feedback as well as other kinds of inputs in order to operate. These inputs may come in the guise of noise or news. The inputs may also control the evolution of the system dynamics and the knowledge of their nature may allow us to forecast the future states of the market with greater accuracy. To this extent the MG-GARCH model provides a valuable insight on how a feedback mechanism can operate within the structure of stock returns processes and explain stylized facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantinos VORLOW & Antonios ANTONIOU & Catherine KYRTSOU, 2004. "Surrogate Data Analysis and Stochastic Chaotic Modelling: Application to Stock Exchange Returns Series," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 27, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MG-GARCH; Surrogate Data Analysis; Chaos; Complexity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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