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Modelling multilateral trade resistance in a gravity model with exchange rate regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Adam
  • David Cobham

Abstract

In estimating a gravity model it is essential to analyse not just bilateral trade resistance, the barriers to trade between a pair of countries, but also multilateral trade resistance (MTR), the barriers to trade that each country faces with all its trading partners. Without correctly modelling MTR, it is impossible either to obtain accurate estimates of the effects on trade of exchange rate regimes and other variables or to perform accurate counterfactual simulations of trade patterns under other assumptions about exchange rate regimes or other variables. In this paper we implement a number of different ways of modelling MTR ?both for a standard gravity model and for an extended model which includes a full range of bilateral exchange rate regimes ?notably several variants of the technique developed by Baier and Bergstrand (2006), which turn out to produce broadly similar results. We then illustrate our preferred approach by carrying out simulations of the effects of the creation of an East African currency union and the effects of a withdrawal from EMU by Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007. "Modelling multilateral trade resistance in a gravity model with exchange rate regimes," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0702, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0702
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    File URL: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/cp0702.pdf
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    1. Hinnerk Gnutzmann & Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan & Tobias Korn, 2021. "Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from "Uxit"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8859, CESifo.
    2. Mireille S. Ntsama Etoundi, 2015. "Impact de la rente pétrolière sur la demande des pays frontaliers du Cameroun," CERDI Working papers halshs-01027500, HAL.
    3. Ernest Miguélez, 2018. "Inventor Diasporas and the Internationalization of Technology," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 41-63.
    4. Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2014. "Impact de la rente pétrolière sur la demande des pays frontaliers du Cameroun," Working Papers 201417, CERDI.
    5. Hanh Vu Thi, 2015. "Essays on the Export Performance of Vietnam/Essais sur la Performance à l'Exportation du Vietnam," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/216765, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Luigi Capoani, 2023. "Review of the gravity model: origins and critical analysis of its theoretical development," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(5), pages 1-43, May.
    7. Rosmaiza A. Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2019. "A Gravity Model Estimation of the Bi-Directional Relationship between International Trade and Migration," Working Papers in Economics 19/02, University of Waikato.
    8. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Korn, Tobias, 2021. "Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from 'Uxit'," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-681, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Rodolfo Metulini, 2013. "A structural analysis on Gravity of Trade regarding the possibility to remove distance from the model," ERSA conference papers ersa13p520, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Libman, Alexander & Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Yadav, Gaurav, 2013. "Are human rights and economic well-being substitutes? The evidence from migration patterns across the Indian states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 139-164.
    11. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Avenyo, Elvis, 2018. "Estimating the effects of robotization on exports," MERIT Working Papers 2018-046, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Naima Saeed & Kevin Cullinane & Victor Gekara & Prem Chhetri, 2021. "Reconfiguring maritime networks due to the Belt and Road Initiative: impact on bilateral trade flows," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 381-400, September.
    13. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2013. "WTO Trade Effects and Identification Problems: Why Knowing The Structural Properties of WTO Memberships Matters?," Discussion Papers Series 491, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Rosmaiza Abdul Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2020. "The Causal Impact of Trade on Migration: A Gravity Model Estimation," Working Papers in Economics 20/01, University of Waikato.
    15. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    16. Rongxing Guo, 2015. "China’s spatial (dis)integration as a multiethnic paradox: what do the interprovincial data say?," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Tomasz Brodzicki & Stanislaw Uminski, 2013. "International trade relations of enterprises established in Poland's regions: gravity model panel estimation," Working Papers 1301, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
    18. Jaimin Lee & Seong-Hoon Cho, 2017. "Free trade agreement and transport service trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1494-1512, July.
    19. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2022. "Does Host Country Intellectual Property Protection Matter for Technology-Intensive Import Flows?," Working papers 329, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    20. João Gilberto Mendes dos Reis & Pedro Sanches Amorim & José António Sarsfield Pereira Cabral & Rodrigo Carlo Toloi, 2020. "The Impact of Logistics Performance on Argentina, Brazil, and the US Soybean Exports from 2012 to 2018: A Gravity Model Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    21. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2018. "Domestic intellectual property rights protection and the margins of bilateral exports," MERIT Working Papers 2018-035, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; geography; trade; exchange rate regime; currency union; transactions costs; multilateral trade resistance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other

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