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Testing Creative Destruction in an Opening Economy: the Case of the South African Manufacturing Industries

  • Philippe Aghion
  • Johannes Fedderke
  • Peter Howitt
  • Chandana Kularatne
  • Nicola Viegi

We study a Lucas (1978) "fruit-tree" economy under the assumption that agents are Choquet expected utility (CEU) rather than standard expected utility (EU) decision makers. The agents’ non-additive beliefs about the economy’s stochastic dividend payment process may thus express ambiguity attitudes and accommodate violations of Savage’s sure-thing principle as elicited by Ellsberg (1961). As our main formal result we establish the existence of a unique stationary equilibrium price function for the assets in this economy. In order to account for the dynamic inconsistency of CEU decision makers, we thereby use an equilibrium concept that combines the market clearing condition of general equilibrium theory with Bayesian Nash equilibrium. A simple example about the equity premium in our economy with non-additive beliefs illustrates our formal findings.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 93.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:93
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  1. Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and innovation: an inverted U relationship," IFS Working Papers W02/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Abhijit Banerjee & Sebastian Galiani & Jim Levinsohn & Zo� McLaren & Ingrid Woolard, 2008. "Why has unemployment risen in the New South Africa?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 715-740, October.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Johannes Fedderke & Gabor Szalontai, 2005. "Industry Concentration in South African Manufacturing Industry: Trends and Consequences, 1972-96," Working Papers 23, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  5. Johannes Fedderke & Dietmar Naumann, 2011. "An analysis of industry concentration in South African manufacturing, 1972-2001," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(22), pages 2919-2939.
  6. Lawrence Edwards, 2005. "Has South Africa Liberalised Its Trade?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 754-775, December.
  7. Rodrick, Dani, 2006. "Understanding South Africa's Economic Puzzles," Working Paper Series rwp06-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Daniel Trefler, 2006. "The long and short of the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6721, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Johannes Fedderke & Chandana Kularatne & Martine Mariotti, 2007. "Mark-up Pricing in South African Industry," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(1), pages 28-69, January.
  10. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Smit, Ben & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2007. "South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success," Working Paper Series rwp07-021, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Aghion, Philippe & Braun, Matias & Fedderke, Johannes, 2008. "Competition and Productivity Growth in South Africa," Scholarly Articles 3350068, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Roeger, Werner, 1995. "Can Imperfect Competition Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivity Measures? Estimates for U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 316-30, April.
  15. Torfinn Harding & Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa," Discussion Papers 425, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  16. J. Fedderke & P. Vaze, 2004. "Response To Rangasamy And Harmse: Trade Liberalisation In The 1990s," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 407-412, 06.
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