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Trade Shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A Global VAR Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Kabundi
  • Mustafa Y. Çakir

Abstract

This paper studies the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. We apply a global vector autoregressive model (global VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock transmission between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1–2009Q4. The model contains 32 countries and has two different estimations: the first one consists of 24 countries and one region, with the 8 countries in the euro area treated as a single economy; and the second estimation contains 20 countries and two regions, with the BRIC and the euro area countries respectively treated as a single economy. The results suggest that trade linkages exist between our focus economies; however the magnitude differs between countries. Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact on South African real imports and output.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alain Kabundi & Mustafa Y. Çakir, 2011. "Trade Shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A Global VAR Analysis," ERSA Working Paper Series 250, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:250
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores & Simon Collinson, 2020. "Are there inequality spillovers? Evidence through a modified inequality measure and European dynamics of inequality," Working Papers 545, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    3. Vuković, Darko B. & Hassan, M. Kabir & Kwakye, Bernard & Febtinugraini, Armike & Shakib, Mohammed, 2024. "Does fintech matter for financial inclusion and financial stability in BRICS markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Ekeocha, Patterson & Ogbuabor, Jonathan, 2020. "Measuring and Evaluating the Dynamics of Trade Shock Propagation in the Oceania," Conference papers 333234, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Adrino Mazenda, 2016. "The Effect of BRICS Trade Relations on South Africa’s Growth," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2016/11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    7. Biyase Mduduzi & Rooderick September, 2018. "Determinants of FDI in BRICS Countries: Panel Data Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 35-48, August.
    8. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2018. "Financial integration in Africa: New evidence using network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 379-390.
    9. Emilie Kinfack & Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2020. "Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: Analysis of Trade between African Economies and their Main Trading partners," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 275-306.
    10. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Sinha, Avik & Sen, Sudipta, 2016. "Atmospheric consequences of trade and human development: A case of BRIC countries," MPRA Paper 100011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Md. Mominur Rahman & Md. Abdul Halim, 2024. "Does the export-to-import ratio affect environmental sustainability? Evidence from BRICS countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(2), pages 904-926, March.
    13. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 39-68.
    14. repec:rza:wpaper:362 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2019. "Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Soklis, George & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-94.
    17. Rudkin, Simon & Wong, Sen Min, 2015. "South East Asian Financial Linkages and the Changing Role of China: Insights from a Global VAR," MPRA Paper 65001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    19. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    20. Wu, Xianhua & Guo, Ji & Song, Shunfeng, 2023. "Influence of international trade disputes on the world industrial economic system based on inoperability input-output model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 787-803.
    21. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "We develop a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) to analyze the global growth spillover effects on Africa. The model contains 46 African countries and 30 developed and emerging market countries, covering 90 percent of the world economy. The res," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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