IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtv/ceisrp/174.html

Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates

Author

Abstract

The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive. In terms of optimal monetary policy, it is demonstrated that the degree of responsiveness of the nominal interest rate to inflation should be related to the stock of foreign debt. Specifically, it is optimal to implement a more passive monetary policy stance in response to larger levels of the outstanding foreign-currency-denominated debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandro Piergallini, 2010. "Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates," CEIS Research Paper 174, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Nov 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/RP174.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianca De Paoli, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Alternative Asset Market Structures: The Case of a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1301-1330, October.
    2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    3. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
    4. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226791258 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    7. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    8. Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Nadeem Ul Haque & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1990. "Growth, External Debt, and Sovereign Risk in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 388-417, June.
    9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Regős, Gábor, 2013. "Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra [Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 670-702.
    3. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Taylor Rule During the Zero or Low Interest Rate Era: The Recent Japanese Case," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2009. "Wealth effects, the Taylor rule and the liquidity trap," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(3), pages 315-331, September.
    2. Chen, Shu-hua & Shaw, Ming-fu & Lai, Ching-chong & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Interest-rate rules and transitional dynamics in an endogenously growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 54-75, February.
    3. Suneetha M. S., 2014. "Perspectives on Valuation of Biodiversity," Working Papers 2014-088, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    5. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    6. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2015. "Can the Learnability Criterion Ensure Determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 43-61, June.
    7. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2018. "Do Heterogeneous Expectations Constitute A Challenge For Policy Interaction?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2107-2140, December.
    8. Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3899, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2015. "External Debt and Stabilizing Macroeconomic Policies," MPRA Paper 89272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 14391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. M. Marzo, 2001. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Regimes: the Role of Nominal Rigidities," Working Papers 411, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2014. "Monetary policy with interest on reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-108.
    13. Malik, Ali K., 2013. "The effects of fiscal spending shocks on the performance of simple monetary policy rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 643-662.
    14. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1379-1423.
    15. Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "Determinacy of Interest Rate Rules with Bond Transaction Services in a Cashless Economy," Research Papers in Economics 2008:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    16. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2009. "Liquidity traps with global Taylor Rules," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 85-106, March.
    17. Hammermann, Felix, 2003. "Comparing Monetary Policy Strategies: Towards a Generalized Reaction Function," Kiel Working Papers 1170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    18. Gomes, Orlando & Mendes, Diana A. & Mendes, Vivaldo M., 2008. "Bounded rational expectations and the stability of interest rate policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3882-3890.
    19. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    20. Fisher, Walter H. & Hof, Franz X., 2005. "Status seeking in the small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-232, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.