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How to Fill the Working-Age Population Gap in Asia: A Population Accounting Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kang, Jong Woo

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Magoncia, Grendell Vie

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The world faces growing challenges of aging populations. Asia is no exception with rapidly increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates. To help policy makers address these issues, this paper examines three sociopolicy options: (i) extending the retirement age, (ii) augmenting labor migration within the region, and (iii) through using population accounting methodology with the goal of increasing fertility rates. When the retirement age is extended from 65 to 70, the overall dependency ratio in 2050 would decline from 56.7% to 44.7%. If the 2010 dependency ratio were to be maintained, the region would need to import significant numbers of workers aged 15‒44 even as those aged 45‒64 would be in surplus. India, Pakistan, and the Philippines will be major sources of surplus labor. Raising fertility rates to the 2.1% replacement level will increase the dependency ratio for the time being, but will eventually reduce it over several decades depending on each country’s demographic structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Jong Woo & Magoncia, Grendell Vie, 2016. "How to Fill the Working-Age Population Gap in Asia: A Population Accounting Approach," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 499, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2016. "Live Long and Prosper," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23133, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic shift; dependency ratio; fertility rate; migration; population accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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