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Marketing Response Models for Shrinking Beer Sales in Germany

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  • Wolfgang Polasek

    () (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria; University of Porto, Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

Beer sales in Germany are confronted for several years with a shrinking market share in the market of alcoholic beverages. I use the approach of sales response function (SRF) models as in Polasek and Baier (2010) and adapt it to time series observation of beer sales for simultaneous estimation. I propose a new class of growth sales (gSRF) models having endogenous and exogenous variables as in Polasek (2011) together with marketing efforts that follow a sustained growth allocation principle. This approach allows to model growth rates in markets that are exposed to fierce competition and where marketing efforts cannot be evaluated directly. The class of gSRF models has the property that it models supply (i.e. marketing efforts) and demand factors jointly in a log-linear regression model that are correlated over time. The estimated model can explain the relative success of marketing expenditures for the shrinking beer market in the period 1999-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Polasek, 2011. "Marketing Response Models for Shrinking Beer Sales in Germany," Working Paper series 50_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:50_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Polasek, 2010. "Endogeneity and Exogeneity in Sales Response Functions," Working Paper series 21_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Albers, Sönke, 1996. "Regeln für die Allokation eines Marketing-Budgets auf Produkte oder Marktsegmente," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 413, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sales response functions (SRF); marketing budget models; MCMC estimation; beer consumption; optimal budget allocation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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