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Why is Economics not a Complex Systems Science?

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Abstract

Economics is viewed as a discipline that is mainly concerned with 'simplistic' theorizing, centered upon constrained optimization. As such, it is ahistorical and outcome focused, ie, it does not deal with economic processes. It is argued that all parts of the economy are inhabited by complex adaptive systems operating in complicated historical contexts and that this should be acknowledged at the core of economic analysis. It is explained how economics changes in fundamental ways when such a perspective is adopted, even if the presumption that people will try to optimize subject to constraints is retained. This is illustrated through discussion of how the production function construct has been used to provide an abstract representation of the network structures that exist in complex adaptive systems such as firms. It is argued that this has led to a serious understatement of the importance of rule systems that govern the connections in productive networks. The macroeconomics of John Maynard Keynes is then revisited to provide an example of how some economists in earlier times were able to provide powerful economic analysis that was based on intuitions that we can now classify as belonging to complex systems perspective on the economy. Throughout the paper, the reasons why a complex systems perspective did not develop in the mainstream of economics in the 20th Century, despite the massive popularity of an economist like Keynes, are discussed and this is returned to in the concluding section where the prospect of paradigmatic change occurring in the future is evaluated.

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  • Prof John Foster, 2004. "Why is Economics not a Complex Systems Science?," Discussion Papers Series 336, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:336
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    File URL: https://economics.uq.edu.au//files/44402/336.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario A. Cedrini & Roberto Marchionatti, 2017. "On the Theoretical and Practical Relevance of the Concept of Gift to the Development of a Non-imperialist Economics," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 633-649, December.
    2. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2010. "Complexity Thinking and Evolutionary Economic Geography," Chapters, in: Ron Boschma & Ron Martin (ed.), The Handbook of Evolutionary Economic Geography, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Charlotte Bruun, 2016. "Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting," New Mathematics and Natural Computation (NMNC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 77-96, July.
    4. Simone Landini & Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "A Maxent Model For Macroscenario Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 719-744.
    5. Damoc Adrian – Ioan, 2018. "Multidisciplinarity in economics education and how it can shape economic thinking in the future," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 263-275, May.
    6. Shana M. Sundstrom & Craig R. Allen & David G. Angeler, 2020. "Scaling and discontinuities in the global economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 319-345, April.
    7. He, Zheng & Rayman-Bacchus, Lez & Wu, Yiming, 2011. "Self-organization of industrial clustering in a transition economy: A proposed framework and case study evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1280-1294.
    8. Lixiao Hao & Vasilios I. Manousiouthakis, 2021. "Sustainability over sets and the business cycle," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Burmaoglu, Serhat & Sartenaer, Olivier & Porter, Alan, 2019. "Conceptual definition of technology emergence: A long journey from philosophy of science to science policy," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Brendan Markey-Towler, 2021. "Psychology of evolutionary economic behaviour," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 361-383, September.
    11. Brendan Markey-Towler, 2018. "A formal psychological theory for evolutionary economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 691-725, September.
    12. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    13. Dahlke, Johannes & Schmidt, Sebastian & Lenz, David & Kinne, Jan & Dehghan, Robert & Abbasiharofteh, Milad & Schütz, Moritz & Kriesch, Lukas & Hottenrott, Hanna & Kanilmaz, Umut Nefta & Grashof, Nils , 2025. "The WebAI paradigm of innovation research: Extracting insight from organizational web data through AI," ZEW Discussion Papers 25-019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Moreira, Paulo, 2013. "The Maritime Chain as a Complex Adaptive System," MPRA Paper 50895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chiarella Carl & Di Guilmi Corrado, 2015. "The limit distribution of evolving strategies in financial markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 137-159, April.
    16. James Derbyshire & Garry Haywood, 2007. "Schumpeterian 'Creative Destruction' and Strengthening the Business Stock Through Firm Formation," Working Papers 200739, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    17. Brendan Markey-Towler & John Foster, 2013. "Why economic theory has little to say about the causes and effects of inequality," Discussion Papers Series 476, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    18. Alberto Russo, 2009. "On the evolution of the Italian bank branch distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2063-2078.
    19. Carolina Cañibano & Jason Potts, 2019. "Toward an evolutionary theory of human capital," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 1017-1035, July.
    20. Bajmócy, Zoltán & Gébert, Judit, 2014. "The outlines of innovation policy in the capability approach," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 93-102.
    21. Chris Noell, 2007. "A look into the nature of complex systems and beyond “Stonehenge” economics: coping with complexity or ignoring it in applied economics?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(2‐3), pages 219-235, September.
    22. Marcelo S. Tedesco & Gonzalo Marquez, 2025. "Rethinking Competition as a Non-Beneficial Mechanism in Economic Systems," Papers 2506.11405, arXiv.org.
    23. James Derbyshire, 2009. "Uncovering Creative Destruction brought about by New Firm Formation: A New Method and Data Source," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(4), pages 310-322, June.
    24. Harper, David A. & Endres, Anthony M., 2010. "Capital as a layer cake: A systems approach to capital and its multi-level structure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 30-41, May.

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