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Exploring the Role of Exchange Rate in Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Thailand

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  • Pongsak Luangaram
  • Nipit Wongpunya

Abstract

This paper develops a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model for the Thai economy. Using Bayesian estimation, we evaluate the conduct of monetary policy under inflation targeting regime. Specifically, we focus on three main issues. First, we investigate whether exchange rate movements are incorporated in the monetary policy formulation. Second, we conduct welfare evaluation under alternative monetary policy settings. Third, we explore how the varying degree of openness could affect the transmission mechanism. Using data over the past 20 years, we find that the Bank of Thailand adjusted policy interest rate in response to exchange rate movements and this helped to reduce both output and inflation fluctuations from global shocks and improves welfare. While higher degree of openness is found to flatten the slope of the Phillips curve, it does not necessarily reduce monetary policy effectiveness. This is because openness also affects the policy coefficients in the central bank's endogenous reaction function.

Suggested Citation

  • Pongsak Luangaram & Nipit Wongpunya, 2022. "Exploring the Role of Exchange Rate in Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 179, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    2. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Mesa Wanasilp, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule and its Performance under Inflation Targeting in Thailand," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 19-28.
    3. Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
    4. Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
    5. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    6. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Mesa Wanasilp, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule and its Performance under Inflation Targeting in Thailand," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 19-28.
    7. Surach Tanboon, 2008. "The Bank of Thailand Structural Model for Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2008-06, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    8. Tommaso Monacelli, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 6-21, April.
    9. Anna Nordstrom & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone & Seiichi Shimizu & Turgut Kisinbay & Jorge Restrepo, 2009. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Khishigjargal, Erdenechuluun, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(4), pages 531-555, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy models; Monetary policy rules; Exchange rates; Bayesian analysis; Thai economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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