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A New Representation for the Foreign Currency Risk Premium

Author

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  • Maria de Fátima Silva
  • Bernardino Adão

Abstract

We provide new representations for the risk premium and expected exchange rate change. According to our representations they are a function of the term premium. In particular, we obtain that investors require higher interest rates on currencies expected to fall if the term premium is expected to stay constant. Moreover, our representation are such that the risk premium is very volatile and negatively correlated with the expected depreciation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria de Fátima Silva & Bernardino Adão, 2001. "A New Representation for the Foreign Currency Risk Premium," Working Papers w200103, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200103
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    2. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
    3. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    4. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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