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Nonlinear Models of Convergence

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  • Gluschenko, Konstantin

Abstract

A sufficient issue in studies of economic development is whether economies (countries, regions of a country, etc.) converge to one another in terms of per capita income. In this paper, nonlinear asymptotically subsiding trends of income gap in a pair of economies model the convergence process. A few specific forms of such trends are proposed: log-exponential trend, exponential trend, and fractional trend. A pair of economies is deemed converging if time series of their income gap is stationary about any of these trends. To test for stationarity, standard unit root tests are applied with non-standard test statistics that are estimated for each kind of the trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2020. "Nonlinear Models of Convergence," MPRA Paper 99316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99316
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99316/1/MPRA_paper_99316.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    2. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    3. Danny Quah, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis (Now published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95 (4), 1993, pp.427-443.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 265, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    5. S. Nahar & B. Inder, 2002. "Testing convergence in economic growth for OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(16), pages 2011-2022.
    6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    7. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicente German‐Soto & Konstantin Gluschenko, 2023. "Long‐term regional convergence in Mexico: A new look," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 963-991, May.
    2. German-Soto, Vicente & Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2021. "Long-Run Cross-State Growth Comparison in Mexico," MPRA Paper 109015, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    income convergence; time series econometrics; nonlinear time-Series model; unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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