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A Non-Random Walk down Canary Wharf

Author

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  • Canegrati, Emanuele

Abstract

In this paper I perform a panel data analysis to evaluate whether �- nancial technical indicators are able to predict stock market returns. By using a panel of 40 stocks taken from the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) observed in 2004, I test the ability of 75 amongst the most famous technical indicators used by traders to predict next-day returns. Surpris- ingly, results are robust in demonstrating that many of these are good predictors, supporting the validity of the technical analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Canegrati, Emanuele, 2008. "A Non-Random Walk down Canary Wharf," MPRA Paper 9871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9871
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9871/1/MPRA_paper_9871.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kang, Suk, 1985. "A note on the equivalence of specification tests in the two-factor multivariate variance components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 193-203, May.
    2. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    3. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "A Note on Error Components Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 383-396, March.
    4. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    6. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    9. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    10. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2015. "Heuristic learning in intraday trading under uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 34-49.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technical analysis; random walk hypothesis; econometrics finance;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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