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Le syndrome hollandais en zone CEMAC: une approche par la modélisation VAR structurelle
[The Dutch Disease in CEMAC: an assessment with the Structural VAR methodology]

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  • Kuikeu, Oscar

Abstract

what could explained the persistence on the dependence of sub-Saharan African countries toward the export of raw materials? This is the main question of this paper. In fact, we test the hypothesis of a Dutch disease occurrence in CEMAC. Globally speaking, the obtained results are significant testimony of the robustness of VAR methodology as an engine to test this kind of hypothesis. The volatility in the international price of raw materials and the real exchange rate appreciation are the main causes of the Dutch disease occurrence in CEMAC, following our results from the VAR models. To finish, also following our results, between these two factors (volatility and competitivity), in Cameroon, it is the channel of exchange rate who prevails relatively more contrary to Gabon.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuikeu, Oscar, 2019. "Le syndrome hollandais en zone CEMAC: une approche par la modélisation VAR structurelle [The Dutch Disease in CEMAC: an assessment with the Structural VAR methodology]," MPRA Paper 96813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96813
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEMAC; Dutch disease; VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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