IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/95489.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule

Author

Listed:
  • Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan
  • Valdivia Coria, Daney David

Abstract

The monetary policy framework of many countries has been developed under an Inflation Targeting Framework, which is a fixed central bank interest rate. The well-known Taylor's Rule is the rule of monetary policy applied in empirical evidence for the mode of transmission mechanisms of the Central Bank. Microfoundations in Log-linear terms are consistent in line with Kranz (2015), however countries such as: China, Nigeria, Bolivia, Yemen, Suriname, among others, are in a different framework, control of the money supply (the IMF defines as Monetary Objective Aggregate). The MacCallum's Rule proposed in the 1980s would be more appropriate to describe the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in this type of policy. But in the present investigation it is based on a monetary policy rule different from the conventional ones. Thanks to the contribution of William Poole in 1970, our Policy Rule explains that the money supply reacts to the behavior of five (5) variables: product gap, interest rate gap, observed interest rate, product expectations and inflation; for what we call this instrument the Poole's Rule. Through a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) we check if said rule is appropriate for economies under a different Inflation Targeting Framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule," MPRA Paper 95489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95489/1/MPRA_paper_95489.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95630/1/MPRA_paper_95630.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C., 1988. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a macroeconometric model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315, September.
    2. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    3. repec:idb:brikps:39438 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    5. David Zeballos Coria & Juan Carlos Heredia Gómez & Paola Yujra Tonconi, 2019. "5 - Fluctuaciones cíclicas y cambios de régimen en la economía boliviana: un análisis estructural a partir de un modelo DSGE," INESAD book chapters, in: Beatriz Muriel Hernández (ed.), Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Económico de Bolivia, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 229-282, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983. "The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 545-566.
    8. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    9. Daniel, Betty C., 1986. "Monetary aggregate versus interest rate rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-86.
    10. Geoffrey Woglom, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Monetary Policy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 91-105.
    11. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2014. "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 294-302, April.
    12. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Celso Jose Costa Junior, 2016. "Understanding DSGE models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 1, number 70, October.
    14. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Fidel Jaramillo & Manuel R. Agosin & Gabriel Sánchez & Inés Butler & Juan S. Blyde & Armando Castelar Pinheiro & Christian Daude & Simón Cueva Armijos & Vicente Albornoz & Le, 2009. "Growing Pains: Binding Constraints to Productive Investment in Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 39438 edited by Manuel R. Agosin & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Fidel Jaramillo, February.
    15. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 388-391, May.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    19. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1981. "Alternative Monetary Policies and Stability in a Stochastic Keynesian Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, October.
    20. Lloyd A. Metzler, 1950. "The Rate of Interest and the Marginal Product of Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 289-289.
    21. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
    22. Daney Valdivia, 2008. "¿Es Importante la Fijación de Precios para Entender la Dinámica de la Inflación en Bolivia?," Development Research Working Paper Series 02/2008, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    23. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    24. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1975. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 51-80, February.
    25. Tobin, James, 1983. "Monetary Policy: Rules, Targets, and Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 506-518, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan, 2022. "Apalancamiento, ciclo financiero y económico [Leverage, financial and business cycles]," MPRA Paper 116849, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundamentos de una Regla de Política Monetaria, Regla de Poole [Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule]," MPRA Paper 93854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. M. Marzo, 2001. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Regimes: the Role of Nominal Rigidities," Working Papers 411, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    4. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    5. Peter J. Stemp, 1991. "Optimal Weights in a Check‐List of Monetary Indicators," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(1), pages 1-13, March.
    6. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 653-722, Elsevier.
    7. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "Should we use linearized models to calculate fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 937-965, November.
    8. Keating, John W. & Smith, A. Lee, 2019. "The optimal monetary instrument and the (mis)use of causality tests," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 90-99.
    9. Stepahnie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 5, pages 125-186, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 5, pages 117-158, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Hiroki Murakami, 2016. "Alternative monetary policies and economic stability in a medium-term Keynesian model," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 323-362, December.
    12. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August.
    13. Mariusz Górajski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2022. "Which hallmarks of optimal monetary policy rules matter in Poland? A stochastic dominance approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(2), pages 149-182.
    14. Górajski Mariusz & Kuchta Zbigniew, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in DSGE models," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    15. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    16. Poilly, Céline, 2010. "Does money matter for the identification of monetary policy shocks: A DSGE perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2159-2178, October.
    17. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
    18. Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Interest On Reserves," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1271-1312, September.
    19. Jae Won Lee, 2010. "Heterogeneous Households in a Sticky Price Model," Departmental Working Papers 201001, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    20. Mathias Hoffmann & Bernd Kempa, 2009. "A Poole Analysis in the New Open Economy Macroeconomic Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 1074-1097, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poole's Rule; Taylor's Rule; MacCallum's Rule; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE); Bayesian Estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.