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اثر التجارة الخارجية على النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين: 1995 -2012
[The Impact of External trade on Economic Growth and development in Palestine: 1995-2012]

Author

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  • Abugamea, Gaber

Abstract

تظهر تجربة التجارة الخارجية الفلسطينية خلال العقدين الماضين نموا مضطردا في الواردات خاصة في أعقاب فترات شهدت كبتا أو نقصا حادا فيها و ذلك في الوقت الذي بدأت فيه الصادرات بالنمو في السنوات الأخيرة. و هذه الدراسة تستقصي أثر النمو في مكوني التجارة الخارجية الواردات و الصادرات السلعية و الكلية على كل من النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية باستخدام التحليل القياسي الذي يربط بين الواردات و الصادرات و النشاط الاقتصادي ممثلاً بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي تارة، و مؤشر التنمية ممثلا بالناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد تارة اخرى، كما و تفحص طبيعة السببية بين كل من الواردات و الصادرات وكل من النمو الاقتصادي و مؤشر التنمية الدخل الفردي. بشكل رئيس تظهر الدراسة أثرا معنويا معتدلا للنمو في الواردات على النمو في النشاط الاقتصادي بينما لا يؤثر النمو في الصادرات معنويا على النشاط الاقتصاد و إن كان ايجابياً. كما و تظهر أثرا ايجابيا معنويا للواردات على الناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد. و باعتبار التجارة الخارجية الكلية المشتملة على التجارة الخدمية فإنه يظهر أداءاً أفضل للتجارة الخارجية في التأثير على النمو الاقتصادي، و كذلك تأثيرا اكبر على الناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد. و بشكل بارز يظهر فحص جرانجر للسببية وجود سببية في اتجاه واحد من الواردات الكلية على النمو الاقتصادي، و من الدخل الفردي على الواردات الكلية. و هذه الدراسة توصي بعدد من السياسات لتوجيه التجارة الخارجية بما يعزز و يخدم النمو في النشاط الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين. الكلمات المفتاحية: الواردات و الصادرات، النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية، طريقة المربعات الصغرى، فحص السببية

Suggested Citation

  • Abugamea, Gaber, 2016. "اثر التجارة الخارجية على النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين: 1995 -2012 [The Impact of External trade on Economic Growth and development in Palestine: 1995-2012]," MPRA Paper 89745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:89745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    2. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2003. "Exports and Economic Growth in Namibia, 1968-1992," Development and Comp Systems 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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